In other words, one fighter is going to be very unhappy after this one.

First, let’s talk about where Frank Mir was before he broke his femur in two places and tore all the ligaments in his knee in a motorcycle accident. At that time, Mir—the UFC Heavyweight Champion—could only be described as a very rare MMA athlete: A big guy that practiced Brazilian Jiu Jitsu with the same fluidity as much smaller men normally do.

Frank Mir knew every submission in the book. He was very flexible for a big man. But there were two things beyond this that also served to set him apart:

1. Mir always came into fights looking to finish them. He didn’t mess around with the normal feeling out process. Rather, he aggressively looked for submissions, and this is why six of his eight pre- injury victories came in the first round.

2. Mir was very strong for a guy that felt so comfortable fighting from his back. In other words, once he sunk in a choke, armbar, or any other submission it was all over. You were not getting out of that move.

But then came the injury.

In Mir’s first three fights coming back from it against the likes of Marcio Cruz (first round submission loss), Dan Christison (decision victory), and Brandon Vera (first round TKO loss), it was clear that he simply wasn’t the same. He was tentative. He got beaten on the ground badly by Cruz in the first round, which was something that never would’ve entered your mind had you seen him fight earlier in his career.

In other words, it was beginning to look as if the old Frank Mir would never return. But then on 8/25/07 at UFC 74: Respect, Mir pulled out a first round submission victory over Antoni Hardonk where his aggressiveness and submission skills were once again on display.

So, the natural question was, is he back?

People seem to want to label Brock Lesnar’s foray into MMA as a publicity stunt by a former WWE guy. Not really accurate. The fact is that Brock Lesnar is a two time NJCAA All American, a two time NCAA All American, a two time Big Ten Champion, and a 2000 NCAA Heavyweight Champion wrestler. Further, he went undefeated on the wrestling circuit as a senior in high school and compiled a 106-5 record during four years of college wrestling that were split between the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Bismarck State College.

He’s also strong as an ox.

Though Lesnar only has one MMA fight to his credit, he’s been training for 1.5 to 2 years in MMA at the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy with coach Greg Nelson for this moment. In other words, Lesnar isn’t just doing this as a publicity stunt. Rather, he’s serious about MMA.

Here’s a fact: Brock Lesnar is going to be better than Frank Mir in terms of takedowns, takedown defense, and ground control. His wrestling pedigree will simply make this so.

Here’s another fact: In his first and only MMA fight against Min Soo Kim, we didn’t find out much about his submission skills, submission defense, or striking.

We will when Lesnar takes on Frank Mir at UFC 81.

Prediction for UFC 81 : Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar

If the Frank Mir that showed up against Marcio Cruz and Brandon Vera shows up against Brock Lesnar, he’ll probably be in trouble. Further, if the fight goes late into the second or third rounds, that may also spell bad news. That said, if the Mir that showed up against Antoni Hardonk makes his way into the Octagon. . . Well, that could be a different story.

Lesnar will likely lose the striking battle here, even though he will almost undoubtedly hold a power advantage on his feet. That said, it’s very doubtful that Mir will be able to take Lesnar to the ground unless that’s where Brock wants to go. So if Lesnar does lose the stand up battle—again, figure that he probably will due to his lack of experience—that means he’ll take things to the ground. And that’s when things will get interesting.

Who wins, the wrestler or the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu guy? Well, these days it’s usually not anywhere near that simple as all the fighters competing in the UFC are true mixed martial artists. But in this case, we’re talking about a burgeoning MMA fighter in Brock Lesnar. In only his second fight, he’s taking on a guy that was once championship caliber.

Lesnar said the following in a February 2008 piece in Fight! Magazine: “There’s a huge question mark on my back. I think this next fight will prove exactly where I’m going to go in this sport.”

Not sure if that’s the case. Brock Lesnar will be an excellent mixed martial artist one day. Heck, he may even prove to be one against Mir in February as he’s got that kind of drive and athleticism. But if this fight doesn’t go well, that hardly means he’s sunk. This is a tough second fight to take on against a guy that has submission skills capable of putting anyone away when healthy.

Said another way, it’s hard to believe that Lesnar won’t make a mistake— like so many other MMA fighters have against Mir— and get caught in a submission due to his lack of experience. If he does, the old Mir wouldn’t let go.

Figure the Mir of today won’t either.

Frank Mir by submission in round one.

Top 10 Most Exciting MMA Fighters of 2007