Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Fabricio Werdum Preview : The other fight at UFC 80

Let’s face it: The headliner at UFC 80 has a big time storyline to it. By the headliner, we of course mean B.J. Penn vs. Joe Stevenson, not Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Fabricio Werdum. After all, that fight is for the UFC Lightweight Championship. Further, there’s the whole Sean Sherk suspension thing, the TUF 2 thing with Joe Stevenson, and the I’m a legend in MMA thing with B.J. Penn attached to it.

But at Submit To MMA ( Submittomma.com ) we believe in looking at the other fight. You know, the one that falls just short of the main event. Besides, when it comes to Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Fabricio Werdum we could be talking about the bout that really steals the show.

Gabriel Gonzaga holds an overall MMA record of 8-2 with three (T)KO’s and five submission victories to his credit. In case you didn’t do the math, that means that all of his victories have come via stoppage.

Unfortunately for him, both of his losses have come via TKO, one of which was to Fabricio Werdum back on September 13, 2003 at a Jungle Fighting event.

Gonzaga is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, so he’s got strong submission skills. He’s also very athletic, big (252 pounds), and strong. His takedowns are very good, his takedown defense is good, and his striking is much improved over his first encounter with Fabricio Werdum.

Just ask Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. In sum, he seems better than average in every area of fighting. That said, it’s the intangibles we don’t know about yet. In other words, when the going got tough with Randy “The Natural” Couture in his last fight, Gonzaga was dominated. Losing to one of the greatest mixed martial arts fighters of all time isn’t anything to be upset about by itself. However, there are still questions to be answered. Said another way, Randy Couture is known for imposing his will upon opponents.

Is Gonzaga cut from the same ilk or not?

Fabricio Werdum possesses an overall MMA record of 9-3-1 with two (T)KO’s and five submission victories to his credit. Important to note may be that all of his losses have come via decision against elite fighters. In other words, his losses have come against the likes of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Andrei Arlovski, and Sergei Kharitonov.

If you’re going to lose, those are the people to lose to, no?

Fabricio Werdum has elite Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. We’re talking top of the food chain here. He also has better than average technical striking skills, even if power is limited on his feet. Further, he has strong takedown defense and better than average takedown skills.

But his takedown and ground control skills are not elite, even if his guard is.

Oh yeah: He also has an excellent jaw. After all, anyone that has survived fights against Andrei Arlovski, Sergei Kharitonov, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Alistair Overeem, and Aleksander Emelianenko has to be able to take a shot.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Fabricio Werdum : The Prediction

In their first fight, Gonzaga just wasn’t as powerful or confident as he is today. Further, his striking skills weren’t as good. That said, he was beaten on his feet against Werdum, both at a distance and especially in close with the clinch via knees.

Gonzaga was also beaten up pretty good in the clinch against Couture.

In the end, Gonzaga is just more explosive than he used to be on his feet. Does that mean he’ll win the stand up battle this time? Let’s say it’s very possible, even if debatable, and that should be his initial gameplan. Further, the majority of this fight will take place where he wants it to as his takedown and ground control skills are better than his opponents.

So if Gabriel Gonzaga is able to win the stand up battle this time around, he will likely win the fight. If he isn’t able to, if he’s forced to take the fight to the ground, that’s when things get interesting. Werdum’s submission skills are better than his. However, his ability to control the fight there isn’t. Will the Octagon wall and allowance of elbows help Gonzaga on the ground? Yes. Does that mean he’ll win a fight on the ground?

Not necessarily.

Still, the Gabriel Gonzaga of today would seem to have the skillset necessary to win here. But against Werdum years ago and Randy Couture rather recently, he seemed to wilt when the fight got tough. That’s going to be the trick in this one. Is Gonzaga’s cardio ready for a three round war? Does he have the heart to persevere if things get really tough?

If he does, then Gonzaga will probably win via decision. If not, then Werdum will take this one home via TKO or submission, possibly late in the fight. There’s no doubt it could go either way very easily, but. . .

Figure on Gabriel Gonzaga winning a close decision via improved striking and some ground and pound along the Octagon wall.