Well, guess what fellas? Mauricio “Shogun” Rua dominated Quinton Jackson at an April 23, 2005 PRIDE event, knocking him out rather viciously in the first round. Then again, at UFC 73 on September 22, 2007 Rua looked rather ordinary—as some PRIDE fighters have—when he lost to Forrest Griffin in his Octagon debut via submission.

So now that Chuck Liddell vs. Mauricio Rua is going to happen— probably at UFC 85 in London, England in June— the question is obvious.

Which fighter is going to come out on top?

Chuck Liddell is one of the greatest light heavyweight fighters of all time as his 21-5 overall MMA record with 13 (T)KO’s and one submission victory would seem to attest to. The name of the game with Liddell has always been pretty simple.

He possesses the most devastating power in his hands that this division has ever seen. Further, he has the best takedown defense the division has ever seen. And when you put those two things together, it’s trouble for a lot of people.

Said another way, guys like Renato Sobral (twice), Randy Couture (twice), Tito Ortiz (twice), Jeremy Horn, Alistair Overeem, and Kevin Randleman have all succumbed via knockout to the Iceman. Further, in Liddell’s most recent fight, he broke a two bout losing streak with a decision victory over his nemesis, Wanderlei Silva.

No one truly knows how good Liddell’s submission skills are, as he never really tries to implement them. We’ve seen him on his back before against Randy Couture, so it seems that his guard is adequate but nothing great. But that doesn’t matter.

Because people don’t put Chuck Liddell on his back.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was widely considered the best 205 pound fighter in the world due to his winning the PRIDE 205 pound Grand Prix at PRIDE: Final Conflict 2005 in dominant fashion. Rua is a young guy that has already defeated the likes of Quinton Jackson, Ricardo Arona, Alistair Overeem, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and Akihiro Gono during his short but illustrious career.

But then came his loss to Forrest Griffin, a fight where he was clearly dominated. Now many are wondering aloud, how good is he?

Well, here’s what we know. After his loss to Griffin it became clear that Rua was injured. Specifically, he required surgery to repair a knee ligament injury. Further, before that fight with Griffin we all know what we saw from the fighter with a 16-3 overall MMA record that includes 13 (T)KO’s and one submission.

He was a cardio marvel, a guy that never stopped coming. Further, he had good takedowns, good takedown defense, good ground control skills, underrated submissions, and very fast hands on his feet. The Muay Thai skills were better than good. Thus, Rua looked to be the total package. Perhaps what set him apart from others, however, was that extreme aggressiveness.

But he looked like a different fighter against Forrest Griffin. So the question is, which Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will we see in June (or May if Chuck Liddell gets his way)? Will we see the guy from PRIDE or the injured fighter that got tired quickly at UFC 73? Will Rua be over the knee injury? Will the different surroundings (the Octagon) affect him as they may have in his first UFC fight? Will the rule differences, including no kicks to a downed opponent—something he is famous for—hurt his game?

All questions that need to be answered.

Chuck Liddell vs. Mauricio Rua Prediction

This is very tough one as there are so many questions. First, let’s assume that we see the same Mauricio “Shogun” Rua we saw competing in PRIDE. After all, Rua is motivated and noted his displeasure after the Griffin fight by saying, “I was extremely sad. That was the worst defeat of my career.”

In other words, if there is any chance we’ll see the old guy we know, June will be the time.

Rua has better submission skills then the Iceman. But there is little chance that he will get Liddell to the canvas, as the Iceman’s takedown defense is legendary. So this fight will take place on the feet.

Liddell is better with his hands. Rua is better with his legs. If Rua can stay on the outside, he can do some damage with low kicks. Then again, Rua likes to use the clinch inside to do damage. But anytime you come inside—if you can even get inside against Liddell’s jab—you’re in imminent danger. In other words, you’ll have to be able to take a big time punch.

Can Rua? Well, he’s certainly a tough guy. But we don’t know if he has one of those great jaws that are so rare; it just hasn’t been tested to the extent that Liddell’s power will test him. In the end, figure that Liddell will land one or two big shots. If Rua can keep his wits about him, he might just have a chance to pull this one out. After all, his hand and leg speed coupled with that legendary aggressiveness could give Liddell trouble. But if Rua can’t keep his with about him when he gets hit with those sledgehammers. . .

This fight could go either way. But figure that the Iceman will eventually connect. And when he does, things are usually over.

Liddell wins via 2nd round KO.

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