January 27, 2008: Is it signed yet? No. But word is that both of these Octagon warriors have agreed in principle to throw down against one another on the UFC’s May 24, 2008 card.

Beyond this stunning news, two other things have come out regarding this happening as it relates to the Huntington Beach Bad Boy Tito Ortiz, that is.

Namely, Ortiz said to The Fight Network that he “was expecting a bigger fight. I think the fans were expecting a bigger fight. I got pressed into it, and all of a sudden, it’s all over the Internet that Tito Ortiz won’t fight Machida. I’m just looking to get my final fight over with the UFC.”

Final fight with the UFC? Whether a marketing ploy or not, Ortiz certainly is playing those cards.

“(The) UFC is caring so much about the brand itself,” Ortiz says. “They could care less about the fighters. Fighters are a dime a dozen. They’ll keep coming. Dana is really out for himself and the company. He doesn’t give a s--t about the fighters.”

Them be fighting words. But enough on the shenanigans with the UFC. Here’s what real fight fans want to talk about.

Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida

Back in late 2002, the Huntington Beach Bad Boy Tito Ortiz was larger than life. He had just finished dominating Ken Shamrock on 11/22/02 by third round TKO and was on a six fight winning streak. And we’re not talking about beating a bunch of nobody’s, either.

Ortiz’s list of defeated opponents during that win streak included Wanderlei Silva, Evan Tanner, Yuki Kondo, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Elvis Sinosic (beyond Shamrock). Said another way, Tito Ortiz was the UFC’s most marketable name by far at the time.

Since then, he’s gone 5-3-1. The losses have come at the hands of Chuck Liddell (twice) and Randy Couture (once). Thus, the luster has worn off, as have some fans’ opinions of him.

That said, Ortiz and his 15-5-1 overall MMA record are no accident. He continues to be one of the strongest people in the UFC Light Heavyweight Division. Further, he possesses elite takedowns and ground control skills (perhaps second to none in the division now that Randy Couture has moved onto the heavyweight division). Further, if Randy Couture put the ground in ground and pound, Tito Ortiz put the pound in it.

Watch that first round assault he dished out on Forrest Griffin at UFC 59 for further confirmation.

(photo courtesy of Sherdog)

In terms of striking skills, Ortiz is good in a technical sense, even if he’s unlikely to knock anybody out on his feet (his TKO’s have generally come via ground and pound). Further, he has only been stopped via a jiu jitsu submission once, so he’s excellent at defending. But when it comes to submission skills, he doesn’t often display them even if he does possess them.

The weaknesses? Some fighters have indicated that Ortiz doesn’t like to get hit and makes mistakes once that starts happening. In terms of a further weakness, that depends.

Simply put, Tito Ortiz used to be a cardio machine. In other words, the ground and pound he was known for was relentless. But against Rashad Evans and Forrest Griffin in recent matches he looked tired by the third round. Was he injured (he said he was against Griffin)? Did he over train? Is he just getting older? Is he too into the Hollywood scene these days? Or is it all just happenstance that will work itself out.

All questions that need to be answered.

Lyoto Machida is an undefeated MMA fighter at 12-0. He’s defeated some excellent fighters along the way like B.J. Penn (unanimous decision), Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (second round submission), Rich Franklin (second round TKO), and Stephan Bonnar (first round TKO). The reason?

Machida is as technically sound a fighter as there is in the 205 pound division today.

Along with this, Machida has excellent—even elite—technical striking skills. He has better than average power on his feet. And he is a diverse striker, able to deliver punishing blows with his hands, feet, or knees. What’s more, Machida has good takedown defense and better than average submission and jiu jitsu skills.

Also, the guy trains with Anderson “The Spider” Silva. So you know that he gets the best stand up sparring partner possible.

Here are the questions on Machida. First, he’s stopped less than half of his opponents ( Machida has only three (T)KO’s and two submission victories to his credit ). So the knock on him is that he is too defensive of a fighter. Does that mean he won’t do well when the going gets tough? Or is his cautious approach just a result of him being a smart fighter?

We’ll see.

If Tito Ortiz were to win: Ortiz is by far the best grappler that Lyoto Machida has ever gone up against. In other words, he’s never felt strength and takedowns like Ortiz possesses. Further, he’s never dealt with the kind of ground onslaught that he can bring.

Thus, if Ortiz wins this match up, expect either a TKO due to ground and pound or a clear decision victory via the same methods against a fighter that looks somewhat confused by the torrent of brutality that an Ortiz can deliver on the ground.

If Lyoto Machida were to win: Tito Ortiz will likely bring Machida to the ground at some point, probably in the first round. However, Machida would employ good defensive tactics and keep Ortiz at bay with some excellent submission attempts. By the second round, Ortiz would have difficulty getting him to the ground because of fatigue from the assault he attempted initially. This would leave the fight in Machida’s world (on the feet).

From there, stand up school would start. Thus, Machida would win the fight either by late round TKO or via a clear decision.

Final Prediction: Tito Ortiz will probably do well at the beginning of this fight. But his performances against Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans combined with the fact that his celebrity is beginning to take center stage for him - see Celebrity Apprentice - would seem to indicate that his cardio won't be at the level it used to be for Machida. Could he look like the old Tito Ortiz from a fitness level in this one? Yes. Is he going to?

The guess here is no.

Lyoto Machida wins via unanimous decision.

Lyoto Machida Biography and Fighting Information