BJ Penn vs. Joe Stevenson for the UFC Lightweight Championship : a UFC 80 Preview Bout

Okay, so the winner will likely get Sean Sherk when he comes back from suspension. Thus, this B.J. Penn vs. Joe Stevenson match up is the first of two fights designed to find out who the real lightweight champion is. We could start looking ahead to the second bout but here’s the problem with that.

This is going to be a tough win for whoever comes through. In other words, the winner isn’t as easy to pick as some seem to think.

B.J. Penn possesses an overall MMA record of 11-4-1 with four (T)KO’s and four submission victories to his credit. In sum, he’s as tough as nails and very difficult to submit as evidenced by the fact that he’s only been stopped once in his career (by Matt Hughes via TKO in their second epic encounter). Further, three of his four losses have come at the hands of larger fighters.

In other words, with the exception of Jens Pulver- a loss that he recently avenged- Penn has been defeated by Matt Hughes (he won one and lost one with Hughes), Georges St. Pierre (a somewhat controversial though fair decision), and Lyoto Machida (a man way bigger than him). In addition, Penn has also taken down some pretty big MMA names like Matt Hughes (already mentioned), Caol Uno, Matt Serra, Jens Pulver, Din Thomas, Takanori Gomi, Duane Ludwig, Rodrigo Gracie, and Renzo Gracie.

So how does BJ Penn do it? Basically, he has some of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu to ever grace the Octagon. He is simply an elite submission fighter from both the guard and top position. In addition, he has astounding takedown defense- just look to the second fight with Hughes for an example of this- and good takedowns.

But it doesn’t stop there for B.J. Penn. You see, he also possesses some of the best hands in the division with power to boot.

In other words, BJ Penn is the total package. The only weakness? Against bigger fighters like Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes in the past he has started out strong only to gas a bit in the later rounds (he also was injured in the second Hughes fight).

Joe Stevenson possesses an overall MMA record of 28-7 with six (T)KO’s and 12 submission victories to his credit. In sum, he claimed the TUF 2 title by defeating Luke Cummo in a hard fought decision. Soon after, Stevenson decided to drop down in weight. Thus, he’s a big and strong lightweight fighter.

Joe Stevenson is an elite Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter. Just ask Dokonjonosuke Mishima and Melvin Guillard about his guillotine choke : We’re talking best in the business here. Along with this, he has strong takedown and takedown defense skills.

In terms of striking, Stevenson has improved a lot. He’s at least average for an MMA professional of this stature, maybe better.

Against Kurt Pellegrino and in the aforementioned bout against Cummo, Stevenson demonstrated both the heart and toughness a great MMA fighter must possess. Along with this, though he has been stopped in bouts before, such an occurrence hasn’t taken place since the year 2000.

Despite his obvious skills and prowess, Stevenson does not have the same level of experience that Penn does.

Prediction: Joe Stevenson is a big and strong lightweight, and B.J. Penn has had difficulty with bigger and stronger fighters before. Further, Stevenson is a formidable BJJ opponent. Thus, if “The Prodigy” makes a big mistake on the ground, Stevenson could take advantage.

That said, B.J. Penn is better on his feet. Further, he’ll be very hard for Stevenson to take down. Even if Stevenson does take him down, Penn is so good on the ground that it’s hard to imagine him being submitted. In fact, there’s always the chance that he could submit Stevenson.

Joe Stevenson loses the experience battle here; he loses the striking battle; and the jiu jitsu submission comparison could debatably be Penn’s as well. Thus, Stevenson’s best shot would seem to be to use his strength and size to wear Penn down via ground and pound. However, as strong as Stevenson is, he’s not Georges St. Pierre or Matt Hughes when it comes to takedowns and ground control.

Joe Stevenson is an outstanding fighter; there’s no doubt that he could come through here. But a betting man would have to say that B.J. Penn simply has too many weapons right now.

Penn via unanimous decision.